Part three — the call
How a confidence grade gets built
When the timer opens, each family votes. A run-counter sitting on four greens might vote green continues; the swing-counter, seeing the run just snap a pattern, votes red; the nap-counter mostly abstains. The call is the weighted majority — and the grade is a measure of how much that majority actually agreed.
Four grades, no decoration:
Highmost families converge on the same outcome — the rounds worth your attention
Mediuma majority exists but with real dissent — smaller stake territory
Lowfamilies split roughly even — the app says pass, and means it
Unreadhistory just shifted hard; the model waits for the window to settle
Here's a worked example. Suppose greens just took four straight rounds, the swing-counter expects a red correction, the run-counter likes five, and the reprise checker notes this exact shape ended in red twice this window. Three lean red, one holds green: medium-to-high red call. If instead the run-counter likes five and the reprise checker's earlier shapes ran to five greens, that's near-unanimy — a high-grade green, the kind of round the app flags.
What the grade is not: a promise. High-grade calls miss. Over a long session they miss far less than guessing does — that gap is the entire product. Anyone who grades their own predictions "always high" is grading their marketing, not their model.